The IMX Data Behind
Every Decision
That Matters

GLP-1

44 quarters of ground truth.

This is what IMX Data sees — and what it means for you.

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Chapter 01 · The Challenge
What if you could see the market
more clearly than anyone else?
🌧️

National Data Masks Truth

Aggregated averages hide critical variation in state-by-state adoption, spend, and payer mix.

⏱️

Lagging Signals

By the time public data surfaces, the market has moved. Competitors have already repositioned.

🧩

Fragmented Sources

Piecing together demographics, drug mix, and geography means months of reconciliation with no single truth.

The global obesity GLP-1 market is projected to grow at roughly 23% CAGR, with shortages driving multi-billion-dollar manufacturing build-outs. The IMX claims layer is where those macro forces show up as state, payer, and drug-level reality.

U.S. GLP-1 claim volume grew 3,498% from our 2015 baseline to today. Every quarter without granular intelligence, you are navigating the fastest-moving drug class in history — blindfolded.

GLP-1 Market Growth
Quarterly claims volume · 2015–2025 · IMX Data
522K
Q1 2015
+3,498%
Total Growth
18.8M
Q4 2025
Chapter 02 · The Market
The GLP-1 market is unlike anything
we've seen before.
231.6M
Total U.S. Claims
2015–2025
$293B+
Total Market Spend
All-Time
3,498%
Claim Volume Growth
Since 2015
$26.1B
Market Spend
Latest Quarter
Manufacturer Share — Total Payments
Total GLP-1 pay volume by manufacturer · IMX Data
Claims per Year — by Manufacturer
Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly · annual claims · IMX Data

External market context (2024–2025): Industry reporting attributes roughly $31.1B combined 2024 revenue to Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide franchise (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) and $16.5B combined to Lilly’s tirzepatide brands (Mounjaro about $11.5B; Zepbound about $4.9B). By Q3 2025, tirzepatide products had passed $10B in combined quarterly revenue in company reports. These figures anchor why IMX manufacturer and drug mix trends matter.

Chapter 02 · The Market
$293B spent.
Here's how it happened.
Quarterly Spend — Plan Pay vs. Patient Pay
$USD billions · 2015–2025 · IMX Data
Plan / Insurer Pay
Patient Out-of-Pocket

The spend story is as dramatic as the claims story — but the composition matters. Plan pay has surged while patient out-of-pocket compresses, reflecting insurer adoption waves and manufacturer coupon programs.

$293B+
Total Market Spend
All-Time
$26.1B
Latest Quarter
Spend
$296M
2015 Baseline
Quarterly Spend

The signal: When patient OOP flattens while plan pay accelerates, it marks an insurer coverage wave — visible in IMX data quarters before analyst reports catch up.

2015
Baseline. ~522K quarterly claims. GLP-1s are niche diabetes drugs. $296M/quarter.
2021
Wegovy FDA approval (June 2021). First obesity breakthrough.

IMX national roll-up: quarterly market spend first crosses $5.2B in Q4 2021 ($5.24B vs $3.70B in Q3 2021).

2023
Mounjaro & Zepbound era. Tirzepatide disrupts.Peak quarterly claims in IMX: 9.5M.
2024
Wegovy cardiovascular indication. FDA approval to reduce CV risk in adults with obesity or overweight and established CVD.
2025
Ozempic kidney claim. Expanded approval to reduce kidney disease progression in T2D with chronic kidney disease.
2025
Wegovy for MASH. FDA approval for noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with moderate-to-advanced liver fibrosis.
2025
$26.1B/quarter. WHO issues its first global GLP-1 obesity guideline (Dec). IMX: 18.8M quarterly claims.
Chapter 03 · The Solution
Meet IMX Data.
The granular claims layer
you've been looking for.

IMX aggregates, normalizes, and delivers U.S. pharmaceutical claims at a depth no other provider matches — state-level, quarter-by-quarter, segmented by drug, payer, demographics, and geography.

54
U.S. States
44
Quarters of Data
7
GLP-1 Drugs Tracked
7
Payer Segments

📍 State-Level Resolution

All 54 U.S. jurisdictions in the extract. Real prescribing behavior, state by state, every quarter — not national averages.

📅 44 Quarters of History

2015–2025. Every inflection point, every policy shock, every drug launch is visible in the data.

🔬 Drug-Level Competitive Intelligence

Ozempic vs. Wegovy vs. Mounjaro vs. Zepbound — claims, spend, and share broken out by drug.

💵 Payer Mix Breakdown

Medicare, Medicaid, PBM, Commercial, Cash — each tracked separately, every single quarter.

🧬 Full Patient Demographics

Age cohorts, gender — every dimension needed to model real patient populations with precision.

Capability 01 · Geographic Intelligence
The direction of the market matters just as much as the pace of its movement.

National averages mask enormous state-to-state variation. IMX Data delivers prescribing intelligence at the state level (even as granular as Zip level) — identify where adoption is accelerating, where payers are resisting, where the next opportunity is forming.

Real insight: When Zepbound received FDA approval, IMX Data revealed which states adopted within the first quarter vs. those lagging 6+ months — exposing physician network dynamics invisible nationally.

NY
18.5M claims
CA
18.2M claims
TX
17.5M claims
FL
16.6M claims
PA
12.3M claims
Top 10 States by GLP-1 Claims
Total claims 2015–2025 · IMX Data
Capability 02 · Geographic Intelligence
GLP-1 claim intensity,
state by state.
Total GLP-1 Claims by State · 2015–2025
Hover a state to see exact claim volume · IMX Data
Lower
Higher
Hover a state
total claims
NY
19M · #1
CA
18M · #2
TX
18M · #3
FL
17M · #4
PA
12M · #5

54 jurisdictions tracked. Every adoption curve, every payer shift — visible as it happens.

Capability 03 · Drug Mix & Competitive Intelligence
Know which drugs are gaining ground
before your competition does.
Drug Market Share by Claims Volume
Top drugs · All-time · IMX Data
Manufacturer Battle
Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk
113.8M
51.4% share
Eli Lilly
107.7M
48.6% share
Drug-by-Drug Claim Volume
All-time totals · IMX Data
OZEMPIC
70.5M
TRULICITY
50.3M
MOUNJARO
40.7M
WEGOVY
20.9M
ZEPBOUND
16.7M
VICTOZA 3-PAK
13.9M
RYBELSUS
8.5M

IMX tracks every drug on a daily basis. Sponsor trial narratives (previous slide) should reconcile with claim volume and share on this view — when they diverge, you have an investable dislocation.

Capability 04 · Payer Mix Intelligence
The payer mix tells a story
most investors are missing.

IMX Data separates Medicare, Medicaid, Commercial, PBM, and Cash-pay volumes. The cash-pay segment alone tells you more about pricing strategy than any analyst report.

Payer Segment Breakdown
Total claims 2015–2025 · IMX Data
Medicare
54.0M
PBM
48.4M
Employer Group
37.9M
Unspecified
34.7M
Commercial
26.1M
Medicaid
23.4M
Cash Pay ⚡
3.1M
Payer Mix Share
% of total claims · IMX Data
💵

Cash Pay: The Signal That Matters

98.7% of spend is covered by payers — but the cash-pay trajectory is the most direct signal for oral GLP-1 pricing. IMX tracks it daily.

Compounded GLP-1s: Industry analyses tie the majority of compounded GLP-1 volume to weight-management use; utilization via telehealth and direct channels often stayed elevated even after national shortage flags for innovator products eased. IMX separates branded, covered volume from cash and alternative pathways — critical when assessing true branded demand.

Capability 05 · Patient Demographics
Real patients. Real data.
Real answers.
Total Number of Unique Patients by Age Cohort
Total all-time claims by decade born · IMX Data
Gender Split — 231.6M Claims
58.9% Female · 35.9% Male · 5.1% Unknown
👥

1960s Cohort Dominates

The 1960s birth decade leads with 4.9M claims — the highest-volume segment. Oral GLP-1 penetration into younger cohorts is the #1 thesis to validate in upcoming quarters.

4.9M
1960s cohort · highest volume segment

Gender as a Leading Indicator

Novo Nordisk expects oral GLP-1 obesity medicines to take a materially larger share by 2030 than older forecasts implied — including among men and younger patients paying out of pocket. Phase 3 OASIS 4 reported about 16.6% mean weight loss at 64 weeks in treatment-adherent adults (oral semaglutide 25 mg vs placebo), with an intention-to-treat average near 13.6%. The FDA approved oral semaglutide 25 mg as Wegovy in December 2025 (empty stomach, 30 minutes before food or other oral meds); list pricing near $149/month in company communications.

Why it matters: Oral uptake — cash-pay, younger, male — is trackable in IMX demographics and payer mix. Lilly’s oral orforglipron (ATTAIN / ACHIEVE) is a separate adherence story: no food/water restriction, with maintenance data after switching from injectables.

Chapter 04 · What's Coming
The next five years will
reshape this market completely.
2026
Semaglutide exclusivity. Initial loss of exclusivity begins in select markets; biosimilar read-through starts with claims mix and cash-pay spreads. IMX flags substitution early.
2026
Oral GLP-1 at scale. Oral Wegovy (Dec 2025 approval). Industry outlook: oral obesity GLP-1s could exceed one-third of category sales by 2030. IMX payer and cohort data validate share-of-voice.
2026
Retatrutide (triple agonist). Phase 3 TRIUMPH program — topline TRIUMPH-4 showed ~28.7% mean weight loss at 68 weeks vs placebo; more Phase 3 readouts expected through 2026. Still investigational.
2026-27
Orforglipron (Lilly) regulatory path. Obesity filing in motion; type 2 diabetes submission targeted for 2026. ATTAIN-MAINTAIN: maintenance after switching from injectables. No meal-timing restriction vs oral Wegovy’s fasting protocol.
2027
Medicare obesity coverage. A yes could add tens of millions of eligible patients overnight. IMX captures the payer shift in real time.
2030
Global burden & access. Obesity linked to ~3.7M deaths worldwide in 2024; economic impact on healthcare estimated near $3 trillion/year by 2030. WHO projects <10% of people who could benefit will access GLP-1s. 190+ obesity assets in development; the access gap remains the frontier.
Total Market Spend Trajectory
$USD billions quarterly · IMX Data

IMX Data is the early warning system. Every policy shift, every approval, every pricing change — you'll see its footprint in claims data before it becomes consensus. 44 quarters of proof.

190+
Assets in
Development
<10%
WHO Est. Patient
Access by 2030
The market is moving.
Are you moving
with it?

IMX Data delivers the depth behind the headlines.

Every drug  ·  Every state  ·  Every day.

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